Bush, Clinton lead in PPP presidential poll

Published April 13, 2015

by Public Policy Polling, April 10, 2015.

PPP's newest North Carolina poll helps to show how Ted Cruz's surge after entering the race is stunting Scott Walker's momentum a little bit. Jeb Bush now leads the GOP field in the state with 19% to 16% for Walker, with Cruz, Mike Huckabee, and Marco Rubio each at 11%, Ben Carson at 9%, Chris Christie at 7%, Rand Paul at 6%, and Rick Perry at 2%.

Cruz is up 8 points from his 3% standing a month ago, while Walker is down 8 points from 24% standing on that previous poll. Those shifts are not a coincidence- Cruz is really eating into Walker's support with voters who describe themselves as 'very conservative.' A month ago Walker led Cruz 32/7 with them, but now the spread is just 19/17. And when you ask Cruz supporters who their second choice is, 39% pick Walker with no one else getting more than 16%. It's clear that Walker has been the main person hurt by Cruz's sudden strength.

Only 2 other candidates saw their support move by more than 2 points in North Carolina compared to our last poll. Rubio's support is up 4 points from 7% to 11%, Mike Huckabee's is down 4 points from 15% to 11%, and Ben Carson's is down 3 points from 12% to 9%. Huckabee and Carson were also on the decline on our national poll last week.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 53% to 13% for Joe Biden, 11% for Elizabeth Warren, 5% for Martin O'Malley, 3% for Jim Webb, and 2% for Bernie Sanders. Everyone's support is within 3 points of where it was a month ago.

General election match ups for President in North Carolina remain very close, although Clinton has slipped a little bit from a month ago. On the last poll she led by an average of 2 points across her 9 match ups with the potential Republican contenders, this month she trails by an average of 1 point,The Republicans who do the best against Clinton, even if they aren't doing as well with the primary electorate this month, are Huckabee who leads by 5 at 48/43 and Walker who leads by 3 at 46/43. The other GOP hopeful with an advantage is Rick Perry at 45/44. Clinton is tied at 45 with Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio. Her leads come against Jeb Bush (45/44), Ben Carson (also 45/44), and Chris Christie (43/41.)

Even if Clinton trails Walker by 3, she's still easily the strongest Democratic candidate. Joe Biden would start out 9 points behind Walker (48/39) and Elizabeth Warren has a 10 point deficit (46/36). Overall the picture in North Carolina continues to suggest a very close Presidential race just like the state had in 2008 and 2012.

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