Bitzer's early assessment of NC's 2024 election

Yet again, North Carolina has seen another historic, but traditional, general election: in sum, Republican presidential and Democratic gubernatorial. The more time changes, the more the patterns stay the same.

But digging into a 48-hour post-analysis of the Old North State's general election (after finally getting a decent night's sleep), one finds some distinctive patterns and trends that give us a sense of what is going on this year in the electoral body politic of North Carolina.

Here's a first attempt to describe and consider some dynamics that I'm going to be very interested in diving deeper once the NC voter history data file is available (later in December after the election is certified). 

A Record 5.6M+ Ballots Cast, But Not A Record Turnout Percentage

As the electoral saying goes, it's all about turnout, turnout, turnout--and that's especially true in North Carolina's general elections. We'll have to wait and see about the partisan (and non-partisan, i.e. unaffiliated) dynamics at play and a host of other factors, but an early assessment of county-level turnout reveals some stark differences beyond the 5.6 million ballots cast (a record) that set the state turnout rate to 73 percent (two points lower than the historic high set in 2020). 

The following map shows the unofficial results for turnout in each county in North Carolina, compared to the state's 73 percent (the darker the blue, the lower the turnout rate; the darker the orange-yellow color, the higher the turnout):

Created by Michael Bitzer from NCSBE Unofficial Election Results for President against County Registration

You'll notice a distinct turnout bifurcation that generally runs along the Inner Coastal Plain region versus the rest of the state. Starting in Anson County on the SC border and running along it, then crossing northeast up to Currituck in the upper-left corner of the state, a swath of counties generally had below the state's turnout rate. Robeson County laid claim to the lowest turnout, at 59 percent.

This region is also home to North Carolina's contribution to the Southern Black Belt, a historic region that cuts from Virginia into Texas due to the large Black population and the legacy of cotton farming. 

Conversely, from the western Piedmont up into the top northwestern corner of the state, counties such as Wilkes and Alexander had among the highest turnout, though the #1 'engaged' county was the Piedmont region's Chatham County, at 82 percent. 

How does turnout potentially correspond to political dynamics?

Pending further analysis and data digging, taking the above map and then comparing it to Trump's presidential performance, we can sort of glean some dynamics at play that warrant further investigation. 

Created by Michael Bitzer from NCSBE Unofficial Election Results for President

In that upper northeastern swath of rub-red counties is the historic regional base of the Republican Party--with the exception of Watauga County and home to Appalachian State University. 

The deep redness of that region, combined with its above state-average turnout, demonstrates a solid Republican base. 

Conversely, in the Inner Coastal Plan, it's the tale of two dynamic at play: even for an overall lower turnout, the upper-half performed much different (Trump was below his state percentage, as indicated in blue) than the lower half, where Trump performed above his state-wide percentage.

Within that region is Nash County, which yet again picked the winning presidential candidate at 50 percent. 

Comparing 2020 and 2024: A Tale Of Shifting Vote Patterns

In thinking about vote performance and results, I decided to contrast the raw votes (and then the percentages) of how each party's presidential candidate performed in the 100 counties. 

For Trump, the raw vote pattern shows very few counties where he 'lost' votes from 2020 (Buncombe stands out notably) but several counties, lead by Brunswick, had significant increases in his raw votes. 

Created by Michael Bitzer using NCSBE Unofficial 2024 Results to Official 2020 Results

Trump saw his votes increase in the two major urban counties of Mecklenburg (home to Charlotte, and a 6,700 vote increase) and Wake (home to Raleigh, with a 8,100 vote increase): even though these major urban counties were still heavily Democratic overall (Harris won Mecklenburg with 65 percent and Wake with 62), these increases denote something that warrants further study (such as, which precincts within Meck and Wake fueled this increase?).

Trump's losses were generally limited and contained, as noted by the counties shaded in blue in both the above map (showing raw votes) and the percentage increase/decline in this map in more muted shades:

Created by Michael Bitzer using NCSBE Unofficial 2024 Results to Official 2020 Results

For Harris, however, it's the tale of a very different dynamic, in comparison to Trump's raw vote and percentage map. First, the raw vote map comparing her vote difference to Biden in 2020:

Created by Michael Bitzer using NCSBE Unofficial 2024 Results to Official 2020 Results

Two glaring counties stand out immediately: Mecklenburg's drop of 6,000 votes compared to Biden's performance four years previously, and Cumberland's drop of 7,000 votes.

While she increased the vote over Biden's in Wake, Johnston, and Brunswick counties, the substantial decline in those Meck and Cumberland, combined with Guilford's (home to Greensboro) 3,000 vote shed and Durham's 2,000 vote decline was substantial. Add on top of that the notable pattern again in the Inner Coastal Region (Black Belt), and the impact is substantial.

The percentage declines show the same story in stark terms, especially in the deep shades of the Black Belt region.

Created by Michael Bitzer using NCSBE Unofficial 2024 Results to Official 2020 Results

Comparing 2016 to 2024 Is Even Starker

One advantage we have for political analysis is the three-time candidacy of Trump, going back to 2016. This allows us to see from his first run for office to his third (only the second time in American political history that a defeated first-term president came back to win re-election) how he performed from his initial to third run, while also giving us a chance to compare his opponents' performance (Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris). 

The following two maps take each party's presidential candidates' 2016 and 2024 vote totals, and see what kind of differences--positive or negative--happened in their vote totals over the eight year time span. I then scaled the colors to a range of -15 (darkest blue, representing a 15 percent decline in the votes from 2016 to 2024) to a 73 percent increase (darkest orange). 

I should note that both parties saw an overall 22 point vote increase from 2016 to 2024, so they are comparable in their overall performance. However, the charts show a very stark difference between Trump and Clinton/Harris.

First, Trump's county growth/decline from 2016 to 2024, using 22 percent as the baseline for county comparison (more blue, a lower percentage than 22; more orange, a higher percentage than 22):

Created by Michael Bitzer using NCSBE Unofficial 2024 Results to Official 2016 Results

Trump's 2016 to 2024 relationship shows a fairly muted pattern across the state. Three coastal counties--Brunswick at 58%, with Pender and Onslow at 46 percent--showed the greatest increase over the eight year period. But counties like Franklin at 46 percent, Currituck at 43 percent, and Robeson and Harnett both at 41 percent show the rural Republican dynamic at play in the eastern portion of the state. 

The muted growth pattern in the upper-northeastern portion of the state deserves some analysis as well, especially in the majority-minority counties. 

The Clinton 2016 to Harris 2024 relationship is the more stark reality of what has happened, especially in eastern rural North Carolina.

Created by Michael Bitzer using NCSBE Unofficial 2024 Results to Official 2020 Results

The Black Belt region--from the southeastern SC-border counties up to the northeastern counties bordering Virginia--is the tale of Democratic vote cratering in the state. Granted, the above-average increases in urban counties such as Wake (31 percent), Buncombe (29 percent) and Mecklenburg (26 percent), combined with a 73 percent increase in Brunswick and 58 percent in Johnston (two surrounding suburban counties) is a positive for Democrats--but the deep blue negative percentages stand in marked contrast to the more muted decreases in Trump's percentage map. 

Awaiting the Final Data to Dissect 2024

For regular readers of this blog, I'll have more analysis once we get the final NC voter history data to merge with the election's voter registration data file. Then, analyses can be done using voter party, race/ethnicity, regionalism, and generations (my "favorite four" factors for understanding this state's politics.

But I would leave you with one final data-point: how the state performed at the two-party federal level (using the U.S. presidential and U.S. House contests, with an understanding that two congressional districts didn't have a Democratic candidate, so I used the votes garnered by the third party candidates as a substitute) and the Council of State executive offices level.

Compiled by Michael Bitzer based on NCSBE Unofficial Results

In summary, North Carolina's voters yet again painted the state as highly competitive: while a slight lean Republican federal state (52-48), we're pretty much dead-even at the 'state'-wide level (50-50). 

Anyone who says North Carolina isn't a continuing competitive state: to paraphrase Jerry Maguire, show me the data.