Assessing Brawley
Published December 11, 2015
by John Wynne, Politics NC, December 10, 2015.
For Governor McCrory yesterday, it was a mixed bag. On one hand he got a poll from Public Policy Polling showing him with a 2-point lead over Roy Cooper. That’s not much, but it’s better to be ahead than not. On the other hand, Cooper got the endorsement of the North Carolina Association of Educators (shocking, I know).
But the biggest news was that former State Rep. Robert Brawley filed his candidacy for governor, meaning that there’s going to be a Republican primary. It’s not something a sitting governor wants to go through and makes winning reelection a little less easy.
There’s not much precedent for an incumbent Republican governor getting a primary challenge from his own party – but mostly because in modern history there’s only been one other GOP governor, Jim Martin, who was unopposed for his party’s nomination in 1988. On the Democratic side, both Jim Hunt in 1980 and Mike Easley in 2004 faced primary opposition while seeking a second term.
Obviously, neither Hunt nor Easley were hurt much by these challenges. In Hunt’s case, his challenge was from a former governor (Bob Scott) who ran against Hunt and the concept of sitting governors being able to seek reelection. He ended up with 29% of the vote, and Hunt coasted to reelection despite a GOP tidal wave nationally.
Two decades later, Easley’s poor relationship with some Democrats sparked noise about primary opposition, but no significant names emerged. Instead, Easley got a challenge from one Rickey Kipfer of Sanford, who was little more than a name on the ballot. Kipfer ended up with 15% of the vote.
Finally, during the 2012 cycle everyone expected Bev Perdue to get a challenge from State Rep. Bill Faison, but Perdue ended up not seeking reelection.
So, we have little to go by for determining how successful a Brawley challenge will be. As a former legislator (albeit one who lost his own primary last year), Brawley has more stature than a mere name on the ballot. But he’s not someone who will be able to tap in to a significant donor network in order to finance his run.
Moreover, there’s not much evidence that GOP voters are pining for a McCrory alternative even if one was available. PPP polled on a hypothetical Republican primary back in August, with Dan Forest as McCrory’s opponent. McCrory led 60/20, despite a rotten summer and his standing with the conservative base in the doldrums. Since then, the governor has recovered and has no less than even odds of winning a second term.
Brawley’s real importance will whether or not his vocal stance against the I-77 tolls and government insiders will resonate. If it does, McCrory will have to work hard to mend fences with his base – not something he wants to do when his campaign really wants to focus on swing voters in urban areas.
In the end, though, Brawley does not pose a significant threat to McCrory. He reminds me strongly of former Rep. John Rhodes, who was from Brawley’s neck of the woods and also lost in a primary against a more mainstream opponent. Rhodes launched a write-in campaign for U.S. Senate and there was some speculation he would hurt Tillis. It turned out to be much ado about nothing.
Bottom line, there are quite a few Republicans of stature who could pose a strong challenge to McCrory if they wanted to do so. Brawley isn’t one of them. Democrats hoping the governor will have to endure a difficult primary are likely to be disappointed.
