Are Democrats done in the South? Arkansas governor's race a test

By REBECCA ELLIOTT. Politico, August 28, 2013.

Twenty years ago, the notion of a Republican-controlled Arkansas was unthinkable. But as the state readies for 2014’s hotly contested governor’s race, Republicans have a shot at cementing their newfound dominance in the longtime southern Democratic stronghold.

With the campaign, Democrats are being forced to confront a tough question: Can they still win in the South?

Governors' offices up for grabs in 2014

The answer will come down to whether former Rep. Mike Ross, the Democratic establishment’s gubernatorial candidate of choice, will be able to carve out his own brand as an Arkansas Democrat, or whether disaffection with the national party will be too strong for him to beat out former Rep. Asa Hutchinson, the Republican front-runner, and stem the tide of growing conservatism.

The state that twice elected Bill Clinton to the presidency now has an all-Republican House delegation, the first in well over a century, and Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor is neck and neck in the polls in a marquee Senate race against Republican Rep. Tom Cotton.

January 2013 marked the first time Republicans controlled the state Legislature since 1874. If Ross loses next year, Republicans could yet again make history — they have not held both the governorship and the Legislature since that same year.

Bucking the trend is term-limited Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe, who enjoys one of the highest job approval ratings of Democratic governors in the country. He also swept every county in the state in his 2010 reelection, even as voters ousted incumbent Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln.

However, the state’s political landscape now suggests that Beebe is the exception, not the rule.

“It’s not like it used to be,” former Democratic Sen. Dale Bumpers said of Arkansas. “Republicans control politics in the state.”

Set against the rest of the South, the strength of the Republican Party in Arkansas would seem unremarkable. Yet Arkansas was always the place where Democrats — Clinton, Bumpers and Beebe chief among them — could thrive in the South.

Politicians and strategists attributed Arkansas’s unique identity to its hefty independent voter base and small size, which has facilitated the kind of retail politics that allows Democrats to create a statewide persona that stands apart from the national party.

“Arkansas has certainly a unique brand of populism, a deeper Democratic culture historically than some of the other Southern states, and so the transition to the Republican Party has been slower,” Hutchinson said.

“I do think in smaller states, rural states, it becomes more of a personal connection that the voter has with the candidates, more so than what they see or hear on TV,” added Arkansas Democratic strategist Robert McLarty.

Hutchinson, 62, served two terms in Congress and then was tapped by President George W. Bush in 2001 to head the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. He previously served as chairman of the Arkansas Republican Party. This will be his fourth bid for statewide office; he lost elections for senator in 1986, Arkansas attorney general in 1990 and governor in 2006.

Arkansas does not require voters to register party affiliation — and the vast majority of voters do not do so — but polls show the state is roughly evenly divided between Democrats, Republicans and independents. However, the percentage of very likely independent voters who identify as leaning Republican has shot up 15 percentage points in the last decade to 46 percent, according to a 2012 University of Arkansas poll.

Strategists attributed the change to a strong dislike for Obama and his policies.

“The detrimental effects of Obama’s liberal policies and Obamacare ignited conservatives,” said Republican political operative Alice Stewart, who previously served as former Gov. Mike Huckabee’s press secretary.

Obama has never been popular in Arkansas, and his approval rating there has, if anything, only gotten worse. According to an internal GOP poll out two weeks ago, 59 percent of likely voters in Arkansas view Obama unfavorably.

If any Democrat can win in this political climate, it’s Ross, strategists said.

The Blue Dog lawmaker, who describes himself as “a pro-business, pro-gun, God-fearing Democrat,” was known as one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress during his six terms in the House. Ross, 52, was unafraid to break with the Obama administration on policy, most notably the Affordable Care Act. Although he voted for an early version of the health care bill that came before the House Energy and Commerce Committee, he ultimately voted against Obamacare on the floor.

“I was never a national Democrat. I’ve always been an Arkansas Democrat,” said Ross, who freed himself up to explore a run for governor when he chose not to seek reelection in 2012.

Ross is also a prodigious fundraiser. He raked in nearly $2 million in the second quarter, more than five times Hutchinson’s haul.

However, the state’s increasingly Republican political landscape suggests that it will no longer be easy for any Democrat — even one as conservative and well-funded as Ross — to win a statewide election in Arkansas.

“I think the question is whether Republicans are going to be able to lead that conservative movement in Arkansas, or whether the Democrats are going to be able to try to separate themselves from the national liberal Democratic agenda and say we can be a different type of Democrat in Arkansas,” Hutchinson said.

That means Republicans will try to nationalize the race, likening Ross to Obama and criticizing the ex-congressman’s role on the energy committee in the passage of the Democratic health care law. Both the Senate and governor campaigns in Arkansas “will be defined by the Democratic candidates’ vote for Obamacare,” Stewart said.

Despite these efforts, strategists said the Obama label may not stick to Ross, which is one of the reasons he has as strong a shot at the governor’s seat as he does.

“Mike Ross is that kind of politician that Democrats need more of if they’re going to hold on and continue to push for statewide offices,” said Roby Brock, editor of Arkansas political website Talk Business, which partners with Hendrix College on statewide polling.

“It’s hard to link Mike Ross to Obama,” McLarty said, adding that Ross will still have to work to disassociate himself from national Democratic policy. “That’s going to be his out-of-the-gate challenge: to define himself on his own issues, on Arkansas issues.”

Ross is well aware of how important this task will be.

“Trying to run a national campaign against a conservative Democrat running for governor of Arkansas — it just won’t work,” Ross said.

And he has Democrats, both nationally and within Arkansas, singing his praises.

“I think his chances are excellent,” Bumpers said of Ross. “I would almost be willing to bet that he will win the governor’s race.”