Analysis of early voting

Published November 3, 2014

by Dr. Michael Bitzer, Political Science Professor, Catawba College, November 2, 2014.

We have the final totals for the vast majority of early votes coming in for North Carolina's general election; a small number of mail-in ballots will continue to trickle in, but the numbers point to a substantial turnout by North Carolina voters through the early voting period.

Of all ballots requested:

Overall, using both the mail-in requests (including those ballots that have been requested and those returned and accepted so far) and the in-person early voting method, North Carolina has the potential of seeing 1,192,190 votes cast before Tuesday's election.

Of all ballots accepted as votes:

Out of this 1.19 million votes cast, 1,155,131 ballots (both by mail-in and in-person) have been accepted as votes for Tuesday's election counting, with the following breakdowns by the different methods of balloting:

Among these accepted mail-in and in-person ballots:

  • registered Democrats are 47.6 percent
  • registered Republicans are 31.9 percent
  • registered Unaffiliated voters are 20.3 percent
  • Women are 54.2 percent
  • White voters are 71.6 percent
  • Black voters are 25.0 percent

Of all accepted ballots that were cast in-person:

Out of the accepted ballots that were cast in-person by North Carolinians, 1,097,560 have been recorded for votes on Tuesday.  This represents 121 percent of the 2010 numbers on the last day of early in-person voting in 2010.  The cumulative totals for these accepted in-person early votes are:

  • registered Democratic voters cast 48.5 percent of the in-person accepted ballots, for a total of 532,026 ballots, representing 125 percent of the final day Democratic totals in 2010
  • registered Republican voters cast 31.1 percent of the in-person accepted ballots, for a total of 341,523 ballots, representing 105 percent of the final day Republican totals in 2010
  • registered Unaffiliated & Libertarian voters cast 20.4 percent of the in-person accepted ballots, for a total of 224,011 ballots, representing 145 percent of the final day unaffiliated/Libertarian totals in 2010.
  • Female voters ended up casting 54.1 percent of the in-person accepted ballots
  • White voters are 70.8 percent of the total in-person accepted ballots
  • Black voters are 25.8 percent of the total in-person accepted ballots

Saturday's daily total of 103,128 for accepted in-person ballots was:

  • registered Democrats: 48.5 percent
  • registered Republicans: 30.4 percent
  • registered Unaffiliated/Libertarians: 21 percent
  • Women: 53.5 percent
  • White voters: 65.4 percent
  • Black voters: 29.9 percent

The trend line in comparing the daily cumulative totals of in-person accepted ballots against the numbers in 2010, as measured by the days out from the election, show the sizable performance of registered Democrats and registered Unaffiliated voters over their numbers from four years ago:

Finally, the voters who have participated in this year's in-person early voting and comparing their voting behavior in 2010's mid-term election shows a significant number of registered Unaffiliated and Democratic voters showing up who didn't cast ballots four years ago:

Additional Analysis (as of 2 PM):

In looking at the voters who were registered to vote in 2010 but didn't vote in the mid-term four years ago, but did show up to cast an early ballot this year, we see some interesting numbers that could give us a clue on the ground game and interest level among the different groups of voters.

Among these 75,616 voters who cast 2014 in-person early ballots and were registered to vote in 2010 but didn't vote in 2010:

  • 40,986 are registered Democrats, representing 54 percent of these voters
  • 17,892 are registered Republicans, representing 24 percent of these voters
  • 16,597 are registered Unaffiliated voters, representing 22 percent of these voters

Among each party registration in terms of race:

Among registered Democrats who cast 2014 in-person early ballots and were registered in 2010 but didn't vote in that year's mid-term election, 54 percent are black voters, with 42 percent white.  Among registered unaffiliated voters, 77 percent are white, while 14 percent are black voters.

Additional Analysis (as of 5 PM):

Among the 2014 NC in-person early voters who were registered in 2010 but didn't vote that year, fifty percent of these voters were in twelve counties (in order of the largest number of total voters): Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Cumberland, Forsyth, Buncombe, Gaston, Durham, Union, Iredell, Pitt, and Catawba counties.

For registered Democrats, half of their 40K votes came from Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Cumberland, Forsyth, Durham, Buncombe, Gaston, Pitt, Union, Wayne, and Orange counties.

For registered Republicans, half of their nearly 18K votes came from Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Union, Gaston, Iredell, Randolph, Buncombe, Catawba, Forsyth, Cumberland, Davidson and Wayne counties.

For registered unaffiliated voters, half of their 16K votes came from Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Buncombe, Forsyth, Cumberland, Union, Durham, Gaston, Orange and Iredell counties.

For all the NC Counties, here are their numbers of 2014 in-person early voters who were registered in 2010 but did not vote in 2010:

DEMLIBREPUNATOTAL
MECKLENBURG548115155819529006
WAKE359122125019126775
GUILFORD2806119108154542
CUMBERLAND167924344852600
FORSYTH155135204962570
BUNCOMBE110965307042349
GASTON100246904122108
DURHAM148241614212068
UNION70407024631869
IREDELL63305783781589
PITT86813352651469
CATAWBA48535213291338
WAYNE69113881841264
NEW HANOVER60342933571257
ALAMANCE60833212441176
RANDOLPH38125582281169
ORANGE64371173841151
CRAVEN56232542181037
NASH51713101731001
CABARRUS4521305226984
ONSLOW3980326240964
ROCKINGHAM5430245167955
JOHNSTON4003295248946
DAVIDSON3251390185901
BURKE4221232220875
ROWAN3670301182850
CLEVELAND5290165112806
HENDERSON2372242261742
BRUNSWICK2801197209687
ROBESON50614479630
MOORE2622209145618
CALDWELL2081277126612
RUTHERFORD3010198103602
FRANKLIN3621122114599
LENOIR391110696594
CARTERET2260203164593
SCOTLAND399064128591
LEE353014097590
CHATHAM3010102179582
GRANVILL392078108578
HARNETT336114891576
EDGECOMB48504341569
SURRY242121698557
LINCOLN2171196113527
WILSON354011459527
BEAUFORT319211091522
HALIFAX37613279488
VANCE34816362474
SAMPSON283110367454
STANLY1892155106452
HOKE29224479417
PERSON24217991413
RICHMOND27506273410
PASQUOTANK21215679348
PENDER17538381342
HAYWOOD18215685324
TRANSYLVANIA129167102299
WILKES88014465297
COLUMBUS21403642292
ALEXANDER112111464291
DARE11717180269
STOKES11418851254
WATAUGA9034997239
MCDOWELL7719360231
DAVIE6609760223
WARREN18501221218
MACON7105968198
BLADEN12902536190
JACKSON10203944185
BERTIE14601223181
PAMLICO10603736179
ANSON15101014175
DUPLIN11803618172
MARTIN11902127167
MADISON8513640162
CASWELL11811823160
ASHE4705241140
POLK3704458139
SWAIN7213034137
GREENE8501432131
YANCEY5514230128
CHEROKEE3405630120
ALLEGHANY6312925118
MITCHELL1906434117
MONTGOMERY6801925112
WASHINGTON920911112
CHOWAN6502616107
NORTHAMPTON89068103
YADKIN2705419100
HERTFORD64071889
PERQUIMAS490151478
CAMDEN310202475
CURRITUCK240192770
CLAY221142764
GRAHAM190211757
AVERY71331455
JONES27020855
GATES4302752
TYRRELL2001324
HYDE1310014

November 3, 2014 at 8:05 am
LWGracie says:

Any idea/thought on why so many military votes have not been accepted?

November 3, 2014 at 10:03 am
Richard Bunce says:

So we can put to rest the nonsense about fewer early voting days is voter suppression... since the groups allegedly being suppressed turned out in greater numbers than 2010.