Donald Trump represents the coarsening of American politics, and it seems to be taking hold in North Carolina.
Two polls released this week show the brash billionaire leading the Republican presidential field in this state. One of them, Public Policy Polling, finds his advantage growing significantly from a month ago.
PPP puts Trump at 38 percent support among Republican respondents to 16 percent for Ted Cruz and 11 percent for Marco Rubio. The Civitas Poll reports Trump at 27 percent, Cruz at 23 percent and Rubio at 10 percent.
Unless something changes dramatically before March 15, North Carolina Republicans will award most of the state’s delegates to anti-establishment candidates Trump and Cruz. The delegates are divided in proportion to the popular vote in the primary.
This ought to concern the establishment Republicans on the ballot — Gov. Pat McCrory and U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, both of whom face opposition in GOP primaries.
McCrory probably isn’t in danger. His challenger is Mooresville insurance agent and former state Rep. Robert Brawley, whose main issue is opposition to a Charlotte-area toll lane project. McCrory deftly passed responsibility to a regional transportation authority, leaving Brawley with less chance of blaming the governor.
Burr’s toughest challenger is Greg Brannon, who finished second to Thom Tillis in the 2014 Republican U.S. Senate primary. Burr is the ultimate establishment senator who doesn’t seem to get along well with Cruz. Brannon is an unabashed Cruz fan. The better the Texas senator does in North Carolina, the better chance Brannon may have against Burr.
Yet Trump is the most likely winner — even though it’s hard to find elected Republicans in North Carolina who are publicly backing him. (Quite a few, including wealthy conservative donor Art Pope, support Rubio — apparently to no effect.)
Trump is loud, arrogant, insulting, boorish and poorly prepared to talk in detail about most substantive issues. He’s a showman, an entertainer who draws large, enthusiastic crowds. He’s turned that into a political following that just might propel him to the presidential nomination. Serious candidates, of both parties, should worry about what this means. Are the American people so angry about government that they’ll fall for a loudmouthed huckster who will promise anything? Will voters demand the same demagoguery from other candidates? Will candidates who deliver the same bombast experience success?
This isn’t just a problem for responsible candidates of both parties but for the good of the state. North Carolina has a $2 billion bond proposal on the ballot March 15. It’s strongly supported by McCrory as well as other leaders — Republicans and Democrats. Trump and Cruz voters could defeat it. As McCrory argues that North Carolina needs to borrow $2 billion to invest in its future, will he fuel more anger among a growing segment of the Republican electorate?
McCrory’s record as governor resembles those of Jeb Bush in Florida and John Kasich in Ohio — establishment presidential candidates who are running hopelessly behind Trump and Cruz, nationally and in North Carolina.
McCrory should win in March, but he also should worry about the direction of politics in North Carolina.
