A kinder, gentler gerrymander

by John Wynne, Politics NC, February 18, 2016.

So the new map is out. Democrats are flustered because the new map is so beautiful. In the Redistricting Committee meeting yesterday afternoon, Sen. Dan Blue’s prepared talking points clearly anticipated an ugly monstrosity of a map when he said that Republicans’ latest efforts took gerrymandering to a whole new level.

Obviously, that’s not accurate. Republicans said they would draw a compact map that didn’t unnecessarily split counties and they were true to their word. But it’s still a map drawn for partisan advantage – Republican legislators have said so themselves. What this is, is a kinder, gentler gerrymander, one designed to produce a 10-3 Republican delegation in a neutral political year. The mapmakers did leave a few opportunities on the table for Democrats, though.

Why such a relatively nice-looking map? Part of the reason the 2011 map was so gerrymandered was that Republicans wanted to quickly end the careers of Reps. Shuler, McIntyre, and Kissell. Their efforts succeeded. Now all they need to do is to protect their incumbents, which any political observer will tell you is much easier than defeating incumbents.

Moreover, Republicans are concerned that the court will look for any reason possible to deny a new map from becoming law. By making a partisan map that can’t be declared on its face to be an obnoxious and extreme gerrymander, they have a strong chance of maintaining their 10-3 margin in the congressional delegation while at the same time avoiding their worst-case scenario: a situation where the courts themselves draw the maps.

So, with that said, here’s my take on the new districts and who might run in them should they be enacted into law:

*Most everyone is saying that Renee Ellmers came out a big winner here. I’m not so sure. The new NC-2 contains mostly the same territory currently represented by George Holding. There’s nothing from Ellmers’ current district except her home in Harnett County and a few precincts in Wake County. It has a lot in common with the NC-2 that originally elected Ellmers over Bob Etheridge in 2010, but that was a long time ago. Also, in an Ellmers/Holding primary, it’s important to note that Holding has a substantial war chest that he sits on in case of a strong challenge from the Democrats, which so far he hasn’t used.

*Rep. Alma Adams is in Greensboro and her district seems to have moved out from under her, leaving her in no man’s land. Well, technically she’s in the new 13th district, but she probably plans to run in the new 12th, which is compacted to Charlotte. There, she’ll probably face a staunch challenge from former NC Senator Malcolm Graham, who is probably the biggest winner under the new map. He might just have earned himself a ticket to Washington – assuming the new map is enacted into law and no other Charlotte candidates emerge.

*Jim Duncan, conservative challenger to Ellmers, is in a difficult position. The district he’s been campaigning in for some time has been completely dismantled. His home in Chatham County is now in the 6th, represented by Mark Walker. Now, even more than Ellmers, he needs Chief Justice John Roberts to issue a stay.

*The new Ninth District could be interesting this year. Rep. Pittenger is going to have to earn the support of voters in the poorer, rural counties that have been added to his district. He keeps the wedge of suburban Charlotte, and now has all of Union County. His primary opponent, George Rouco, is now in the new 13th district, so the situation here is not settled.

*As mentioned before, the Twelfth District is now completely within Mecklenburg County. All I have to say is poor Huntersville and Cornelius (and by extension, Thom Tillis) – they will now likely be represented by a liberal Democrat in Congress.

*The new Thirteenth District will be interesting, not only in the primary but in the general. George Rouco lives here, but most of his donor base is in the Charlotte area. Typically, I would look to the party’s bench in the state legislature to see who might run here, but legislators who have filed for reelection might not be permitted to file again for Congress.

*The layout of the new Thirteenth: part of Guilford County, including Greensboro, along with super-Republican counties on the edge of the Piedmont. This is a district that Romney won by 7% and Tillis won by 8%. If Democrats want to win an extra seat, they should look here first. Not only because it will be an open seat, but also because it’s also the district where the Republican edge is smallest. Democrats will need to catch a lot of breaks to win here, though.

Of course, all of this could be moot if the Supreme Court issues a stay. In that case, the old 2011 map will still be with us for yet another cycle. Hopefully we’ll hear from them soon. Until then, the plans of a lot of people are up in the air.

http://www.politicsnc.com/a-kinder-gentler-gerrymander/