A High Point University/Survey USA poll shows Kamala Harris with a slight lead over Trump

Mid-Convention, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Tied Among All Likely Voters, With Harris + 1 Among Certain Voters, +2 Among All Registered;
Trump More Viewed as 'Strong Leader,' But Harris Seen as More 'Honest and Truthful,' Having 'Right Temperament' – as 46% Say Trump Too Old:

From 1876 to 1964, Republicans won North Carolina's electoral votes for President just once, as part of Herbert Hoover's 1928 landslide 40-state win. From 1968 to 2020, Democrats won the state just twice – Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008. Today, as Democrats prepare for the final night of their national convention in Chicago, Vice President Kamala Harris may have whisker-thin edge in her party's quest for a third modern-era win in the Tar Heel State.

SurveyUSA's latest polling, conducted exclusively for Hight Point University, shows Harris taking 46% of the vote among all registered voters, Donald Trump taking 45%. 1% say they will vote for another candidate; 8% say they are undecided. Among those voters who say they are certain they will vote in November, Harris leads by 2 points, 48% to 46%; among those who say they will probably vote, Trump leads by 10, 50% to 40%. Combining certain and probable voters – how SurveyUSA traditionally defines "likely voters" – the race is tied: 47% Harris, 47% Trump. Whether the GOP convinces those less-than-certain "probable" voters – 12% of all registered voters &ndash to show up for the Trump-Vance ticket or whether the Democratic Party convinces them to stay home, vote third-party, or even switch to Harris-Walz may determine the outcome of the national contest.

Focusing on all registered voters, Trump leads by 3 points among men; Harris leads by 3 among women – a 6-point gender gap. Trump leads by 19 points among white voters; Harris leads by 65 points among Black voters, with Black women backing her by a 73-point margin, Black men by a 55-point margin. 27% of registered voters, a plurality, say improving economic conditions is the most important issue this year, and Trump leads by 23 points among those voters. Trump also leads by 27 points among those voters most focused on job creation (6% of all voters), by 62 points among the 11% most focused on managing immigration, and by 47 points among those who say the top issue is protecting the US from foreign threats, 8% of all registered voters. Those leads are offset by those of Harris: 72 points among those who say protecting democracy is most important (11% of all voters), 55 points among those focused on abortion laws (8% of voters), and 37 points among the 11% who say protecting Social Security and Medicare is most important.

Regionally, Trump leads by 18 points in Western North Carolina and has a 2 point edge in the Southern and Coastal portions of the state. Voters in greater Charlotte are split evenly. Harris leads by 5 points in the Raleigh area and by 4 in greater Greensboro.

Briefly turning to the race for Governor, incumbent Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein defeats incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson by 14 points among all registered voters, 48% to 34%, with 18% undecided. Among certain voters, Stein leads by 16 points; among probable voters, by 6. Combined, the Democrat holds a 14-point lead among all likely voters. 88% of those voting for Harris for President say they will vote for Stein for Governor; 68% of those voting for Trump for President say they will vote for Robinson for Governor. 5% of Harris voters go with Robinson; 13% of Trump voters go with Stein.

Elections for Congress, for the State House of Representatives, and for the State Senate could all go either way, with 43% of registered voters saying they'll vote for the Republican in their Congressional race, 42% for the Democrat, a nominal 1-point advantage to the GOP. Both the State House and State Senate contests run even, among both registered and likely voters.

Looking at some highlighted Net Favorability numbers (Q13-Q23 below), which are calculated by subtracting unfavorable ratings from favorable ones:

• Joe Biden: -20. High of +64 among Harris voters and Democrats; +61 among very liberal voters, +59 among 2020 Biden voters.
• Donald Trump: -9. High of +83 among 2024 Trump voters; +76 among 2020 Trump voters; +72 among Republicans.
• JD Vance: -13. High of +49 among voters focused on immigration; +44 among 2020 Trump voters; +42 among 2024 Trump voters.
• Kamala Harris: -5. High of +85 among Harris voters; +77 among Democrats; +76 among very liberal voters; +72 among 2020 Biden voters.
• Tim Walz: +2. High of +69 among very liberal voters; +62 among somewhat liberal voters; +61 among voters focused on protecting democracy.

Voters were asked, regardless of which candidate they supported, which one each of these phrases fits best:
Trump has the advantage on these phrases, ranked from highest to lowest advantage:

• Too old to be president: +39 for Trump. 46% Trump, 7% Harris.
• Understands the economy: +12 for Trump. 48% Trump, 36% Harris.
• Takes action rather than just talking: +10 for Trump, 46% to 36%.
• Strong leader: +8 for Trump. 46% Trump, 38% Harris.
• Good judgment in a crisis: +3 for Trump, 41% to 38%.
• Will do what's right, not what's popular: +1 for Trump, 41% to 40%.

Harris has the advantage on these phrases:

• Has middle class values: +12 for Harris. 45% Harris, 33% Trump.
• Willing to work with the other party: +12 for Harris, 41% to 29%.
• Has the right temperament to be president: +11 for Harris, 46% to 35%.
• Honest and truthful: +8 for Harris. 40% Harris, 32% Trump.
• Cares about people like me: +4 for Harris, 40% to 36%.
• Smart: +2 for Harris, 40% to 38%.

Voters were then asked which candidate would do a better job on each of these issues:
Trump leads in these areas:

• Managing immigration: +17 for Trump, 52% to 35%.
• Protecting the U.S. from foreign threats: +13 for Trump, 51% to 38%.
• Improving economic conditions: +7 for Trump, 48% to 41%.
• Creating jobs: +7 for Trump, 48% to 41%.
• Supporting veterans: +6 for Trump, 47% to 41%.
• Federal Taxes: +5 for Trump, 44% to 39%.

Harris leads in these areas:

• Dealing with climate change: +14 for Harris, 46% to 32%.
• Reducing racial tension: +12 for Harris, 46% to 34%.
• Promoting education: +12 for Harris, 49% to 37%.
• Protecting democracy: +10 for Harris, 49% to 39%.
• Abortion laws: +10 for Harris, 49% to 39%.
• Providing quality health care: +9 for Harris, 47% to 38%.
• Protecting Social Security and Medicare: +7 for Harris, 47% to 40%.