A different look at NC’s Senate race
Published January 18, 2014
by John Frank, Under the Dome, News and Observer, January 17, 2014.
North Carolina political consultant John Davis says he sees a Kay Hagan-Thom Tillis showdown in the U.S. Senate race and expects Tillis to win.
In his recent subscriber-only Political Report, Davis said it’s in the numbers. For starters, he says, the landscape isn’t good for Hagan. No N.C. Democrat has won a second term in the U.S. Senate since 1968, the party is “in shambles,” polls show it tied, midterms aren’t kind to the White House and Hagan told the lie of the year when it came to healthcare.
“So, if it comes down to a race between Sen. Kay Hagan and Speaker Thom Tillis, it is highly likely that the two equally capable and equally funded combatants will be surrounded by equally savvy consultants and have the backing of equally malicious super PACs,” he writes. “Which brings me back to those facts and numbers (above), and why I believe that Thom Tillis is likely to upset Kay Hagan in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.”
Davis tries to give the race an independent eye but he obviously puts stock in the current GOP power structure. His bold prediction counters many Washington prognosticators. And he sees another dynamic that defies the conventional wisdom: Hagan cannot count on a divided Republican Party.
“Of course, the great hope of Brannon/Harris/Flynn/Grant is to force a primary runoff by ganging up on Tillis with enough outside super PAC attack ads that keep his vote below 40 percent,” he writes. “However, the odds are greater that they will splinter the hard right conservatives and Tillis will parlay a sizable cash and organizational advantage into a primary victory on May 6, 2014.
“Tillis’ legislative accomplishments are such that it will simply be too difficult for any Republican to get very far with an attempt to discredit his commitment to the conservative cause. In other words, even his on primary detractors will not likely stay divided against him for long. They want to defeat Hagan.” (Read his full report here.)
Whether he proves correct on this latter point, is the story to watch in the coming months.
January 18, 2014 at 9:11 am
John Gjertsen says:
Tillis' LEGISLATIVE ACCOMPLISHMENTS?! Really? Well, since you brought that up, Mr. Davis, let's take a closer look:
http://www.civitasaction.org/house/Thom%20Tillis/2010/
Hardly what one might call a conservative. NC can do better with Greg Brannon.
January 18, 2014 at 2:54 pm
Brenda Brown says:
I agree that Thom Tillis is a proven leader in NC. He helped guide through more conservative reforms than other other state: Voter reform, Education reform, tax reform, regulatory reform not to mention strengthening gun rights and protecting life through the pro-life bills. The others talk about reform. Thom Tilis enacted reform.
January 19, 2014 at 9:54 am
Dave Burton says:
I was prepared to dislike Thom Tillis, because he beat my main man, John Rhodes, in the GOP primary, a few years ago. But the truth is that Tillis has done a very good job in the NC House. The Tillis-Stam team has been remarkably effective at "herding cats" to keep the GOP caucus mostly together, and get many excellent commonsense conservative reforms enacted.
Mark Harris is a good man, too, but he has far less relevant experience, and he would be a weaker candidate in the general election against Hagan.
Brannon, the Medi-Weightloss Clinic franchisee & nutraceutical peddler, will get the Ron Paul vote, and that's about it.
Flynn, Grant & Kryn will be footnotes, unless they can write some very big checks, which I doubt (though I must say that Kryn is a good man).
January 20, 2014 at 2:46 pm
Norm Kelly says:
Somebody has to defeat K. That's the most important, only point of the next election cycle.
The country and NC specifically can NOT afford more 'ideas' from the far left. When ANYBODY'S record is compared to K's, it will be clear that this somebody is more conservative than K. Because K is so far left, because K is such a supporter of socialist ideas, it will be easy to prove that her opponent is the more conservative.
However, we also have to take into account electability. Those of us on the right (and in the right!) tend to stay home on voting day when the person we get to vote for is nothing more than a wannabe. If we end up with some unknown running against K, she will win. If we end up with a wishy-washy like McCain, Romney, Christie, then the right stays home - K wins. If we have a candidate running against K who is conservative, who has a record, then the right will turn out to vote. Give us a choice to stop socialism and I believe we will make that choice. Give us a choice of implementing socialism now, K's plan, or delaying or simply slowing socialism a little bit but letting it happen anyway (some wishy-washy), then the quick socialist plan will win.
Do I know anything about those who want to run against Tillis? Nope. Which is probably true of too many in NC. If we don't know these people, we have nothing to judge them on, then staying home defaults to a K win. What is the worst outcome for NC? A wishy-washy Republican, of course. It's no longer just a desire for conservatives and Constitutionalists to take the majority in Congress. It's a necessity for the long term survival of our country. We can absolutely look elsewhere in the world and see the 'positive' effect of socialism. Then again, we can simply look at the US and our history to see that capitalism, free-enterprise, market-driven economies provide the best opportunity for people to better themselves. Which markets are struggling the most? I have a living to make to put food on my table. I am not an economist. I don't have time to do the research that's necessary to make a fully educated claim about our future. But I have enough intelligence, enough common sense, and the ability to read to make the conclusion that free is better than the alternative. The markets that struggle the most are those that are influenced the most by governments. I do not wish to be, nor do I wish my grandkids to be, dependent on any state, wards of any state, obligated to any state, enslaved to any state. What does K's plan bring us? Socialism. Enslavement. Dependent on government at every level for every aspect of our daily lives. Waiting in lines for approval from our government to do something. Waiting in lines to buy goods, at artificially inflated prices, adjusted by the 'well meaning' bureaucrats who control us. Forced by our all-knowing, all-powerful central planners to participate in a market that we'd prefer not to participate in. Health insurance is just the beginning of their plans. Now that SCOTUS has given them permission to force us to participate in health insurance, have no doubt that the socialists in Congress, the central planners, the Price & Hagan types are already looking at other markets they can force us to participate in. Or markets they can make illegal so we can't participate in them. Or tax some market to the point of strangling that market. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. What part of forcing me to participate in a given market doesn't equal absolute power? How does this story end well?
Is it possible for K to be defeated? Only if a true, demonstrably true, conservative runs against her. Someone who can clearly express their desire to reintroduce freedom and the rule of law to our country. Something that the current WH occupant can't do. Something that his minion K is not willing to do.
January 21, 2014 at 8:01 am
John Gjertsen says:
On freedom and free markets, stemming the tide of nanny state socialism, I think you'll find Brannon the conservative you're looking for, but do your own research.
