5 Things to Watch for on Election Night

By Tom Campbell

As we tune in tonight for election day returns, pay attention to the following five things:

1. Voter turnout – We had the largest early voting numbers in history, close to the 42 percent of 2008, as 2.7 million voted early. 48 percent were registered Democrats, 32 percent were Republicans. The large early vote margin provided Obama with the 14,000 vote plurality needed to win NC in ’08. NC SPIN panelists predict between 63-70 percent overall voter turnouts. Big numbers will likely help Romney, while a smaller vote total might mean an Obama win in North Carolina.
2. Who Votes – While it might be several days before we learn the demographic makeup of those who vote we can watch the urban-rural turnouts. East of I-95 and the Western mountains are Republican strongholds. Romney will need big turnouts in those regions.
3. The McCrory percentage – It is a foregone conclusion Pat McCrory will be the next governor. The question is how large his percentage of the vote will be. NC SPIN panelists predict that if his vote margin exceeds 53 percent it could mean trouble down the ballot for Democrats. A 60 percent margin would likely signal a Republican landslide in Council of State races.
4. Influence by super PACs - 2012 was the year we saw the real impact of the Supreme Court’s Citizen United case. It might be difficult to judge how much influence they had in our Presidential or even gubernatorial contests but we can measure their impact in the Newby-Ervin Supreme Court race and the Forest-Coleman Lt. Governor’s contest, as both were heavily supported by PACs.
5. The big 5 contests to watch - Everyone will want to know which presidential candidate won our state but most political observers will be watching five down ballot races. The Linda Coleman vs. Dan Forest Lt. Governor’s race might be the “canary in the mine” test for Democrats. A big Forest win will be bad news for Democrats. Coupled with a large McCrory vote percentage incumbent Auditor Beth Wood might have trouble against an already troubled Debra Goldman. Even Pat McCrory seemed to endorse Wood. The Insurance Commissioner’s race is rarely noteworthy but Tuesday’s vote could be. Incumbent Wayne Goodwin has been seriously challenged by Mike Causey and property insurance rate hikes along the coast. Those in the know say the rate hikes would have happened had Causey been Commissioner but Goodwin will take the heat. June Atkinson’s re-election as Superintendent of Public Instruction could be problematic as she faces John Tedesco. NCAE and educators are holding their breaths on this one. Tedesco is a “take no prisoners” reformer. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and Treasurer Janet Cowell could get caught in a Republican backlash if there is no firewall. Finally, we will be watching the Paul Newby Supreme Court contest against Sam “Jimmy” Ervin. Many over 55 still remember “Senator Sam” and, despite more than 1.5 million dollars in PAC advertising this could be close.

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