2014 predictions fell short; some picks for 2015

by Rob Christensen, News and Observer, January 3, 2015.

Every year I get out my crystal ball and make my predictions of what will happen in politics and government during the coming year. The fact that I am often wrong has never stopped me before and I see no reason why it should stop me now.

First let’s review last year’s predictions, which I must say is a painful exercise.

I predicted that the Republican legislature, battered in the public opinion polls, would move to the center during the election year, and would provide a 2 percent teacher pay hike. The legislature did move to the center but it provided an average teacher increase of 7 percent. I also predicted that lawmakers would restore the additional pay for teachers who earn a master’s degree – a benefit cut in 2013 that had been in existence since the 1940s. It didn’t, although it allowed teachers already enrolled in master’s programs to collect master’s pay when they earn their degree.

I predicted that House Speaker Thom Tillis would win the Republican primary, but would do it in a runoff with the Rev. Mark Harris. As it turns out he didn’t need the runoff.

I predicted Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan would win a tough race against Tillis, riding a wave of Democratic anger about the legislature. Helped by a Republican national wave, Tillis won a close one.

Wrong about races

I predicted the Republicans would retain control of the legislature but lose ground. I predicted the House would go from a 77-43 Republican majority to a 66-52 Republican majority. What really happened is it went to 74-46 Republican. I predicted the Senate would go from 33-17 Republican majority to 29-21 Republican. Instead it went to 34-16 Republican.

I did correctly predict that 7th District Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre would not seek re-election because his district had been made too Republican. But I incorrectly predicted that state Sen. Malcolm Howard would win the 12th District U.S. House seat that went to state Rep. Alma Adams. I also was wrong about Phil Berger Jr. winning the 6th district U.S. House seat.

With that kind of year, you would think I would retire my crystal ball. But no, that would be the coward’s way out.

No Medicaid expansion

So here are several predictions for 2015.

The North Carolina legislature will not expand Medicaid, the largely federally funded health insurance program for the poor. Gov. Pat McCrory has indicated that he is thinking about it, but conservative legislators – unchastened by voters in the mid-terms – are unlikely to go along.

Although the state will allow drillers to start pulling licenses in April, don’t look for any major fracking operations in North Carolina anytime soon – if ever. The market for shale gas exploration is poor, and North Carolina’s likely reserves are tiny. All the controversy about fracking in North Carolina is likely much ado about nothing.

The legislature will reduce the capital gains tax, rewarding the big donors for financing their campaigns in the mid-term elections. That means there will be little money left over for raises for teachers or state employees – especially given the record tax cuts passed in 2013.

Although there is some discontent within the Republican Party about McCrory, don’t look for a major primary opponent to emerge. It has been 20 years since the Republicans last controlled the administrative branch and it is doubtful they will be looking for a fratricidal primary. If a primary challenge does occur, it would most likely come from Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, the favorite of the tea party wing. But McCrory has been working hard to keep Forest happy.

Who will take on Burr

Sen. Richard Burr, happy in his roost as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, will begin re-election efforts, postponing any idea of hanging out a lobbying shingle with his buddy, House Speaker John Boehner. Although Burr’s polling numbers are unimpressive, he will likely be a far more formidable opponent for Democrats than was Tillis.

Hagan will not run against Burr. Having gone through a $111 million Senate campaign – which has to be an emotionally and physically draining affair – Hagan will decide not to take on an even more difficult opponent than she faced last time. Democratic choices will likely come down to U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx and McIntyre. My guess is McIntyre will decide to challenge Burr.

We will see plenty of Republican presidential contenders stopping in the state this year because legislators moved the date of North Carolina’s presidential primary so it comes right after South Carolina’s, which is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 13, 2016. Historically, the Tar Heel primaries have been held in May.

North Carolina will once again be one of the nation’s political hot spots in 2016 with the state a major focal point in the races for president, governor and the U.S. Senate. So expect the political ads to begin this year. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.